In our first blog for the new decade we pause to consider the ramifications for risk management borne out of two events that occurred within hours of each other on Christmas Eve / Christmas Day 2009.
The circumstances surrounding the events call into question a key element of risk management - the practice of risk profiling.
It is difficult to establish the history of risk profiling other than to say that it is likely to have been around (if not in a formalised state) for as long as people have tried to manage risk.
The concept of risk profiling is based on the assumption that one can predict future risks or better understand existing risks by examining or analysing information, trends or data points.
Risk management as a discipline has long used risk profiling as a tool in the understanding of the - not suprisingly - profile of risk that is to be managed.
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We don't need to rewrite the many thousands of newspaper articles that have been written about the two instances that we refer to.
Firstly, the failed Christmas Day attempted bombing of the Northwest Airlines flight and its 278 passengers by a Nigerian man, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab.
Secondly, the assault on Pope Benedict on Christmas Eve by Susanna Maiolo.
In both instances there were glaring indicators that both persons were of high risk and would be possibly dangerous in the circumstances that they ultimately found themselves in.
With regards to the Northwest incident, the alleged attempted bomber's father had warned authorities of his son's likely intentions.
With regards to the Papal incident, in 2008 - at the same Mass - the lady had attempted to jump over the security barriers (wearing near identical clothes to the ones that she wore in 2009).
Risk profiling should have prevented both instances.
Is it not reasonable to expect that Maiolo may have been stopped somewhere before she was in the physical presence of one of the highest profile people in the world? This was a person that had previously attempted to breach the security of the Pope - yet she was allowed to be within striking distance again.
Is it not reasonable to expect that the attempted bomber may have been stopped before he got on a plane and put so many lifes in jeoporady.
Undoubtedly official investigations will be - and have been - launched to ensure that such instances do not happen again.
One does wonder, however, as to what the practitioners of risk profiling have to say about the instances.
Why is it that we only hear about risk profiling when it works.
When it fails there is but silence.
For Honestly Lay Bare - that equation of truimphant success against silent failures is not the foundation upon which risk management should be basing its long term future.
The moment is upon risk profiling to prove its worth.
Honestly Lay Bare doubts that it can.
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